Ottawa, Canada - Canada is facing an unprecedented political and economic crisis, one that has brought its internal divisions and strained international relationships to the fore. As the clock ticks toward January 20, when the newly elected U.S. administration takes office, the Canadian federal government finds itself scrambling to maintain control of the narrative—and the country itself.
The incoming U.S. administration has made it abundantly clear that securing the northern border is a top priority. With a renewed focus on trade imbalances, border security, and energy independence, Washington expects Canada to align with its policies. But Ottawa has responded with what critics are calling a vague and reactionary agenda of “revenge economic tactics.”
The Trudeau government’s strategy—if it can be called that—involves pressuring the United States with retaliatory trade measures. However, the plan is already unraveling. One major sticking point? Alberta.
Premier Danielle Smith of Alberta has thrown a wrench into Ottawa’s plans. Fresh off a meeting with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump at his Florida residence, Smith has taken a hard line, refusing to let the federal government use Alberta’s oil exports as leverage in its economic threats against the U.S.
Smith’s stance is simple: Alberta’s future—and its prosperity—rests squarely on its oil and gas industry. “Under no conditions will the federal government dictate Alberta’s energy exports,” she declared in a press conference. Alberta’s position directly counters Ottawa’s vision of reducing fossil fuel production in favor of ambitious (and many say unrealistic) climate goals.
This growing rift is more than a provincial squabble. Alberta’s oil revenues are a cornerstone of Canada’s economy, and without them, the federal government’s ability to function—let alone implement its policies—is in jeopardy.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s handling of the U.S.-Canada relationship has been widely criticized as amateurish at best, disastrous at worst. His repeated public jabs at Trump—accusing him of being a threat to democracy and comparing him to autocrats—have backfired spectacularly.
Now, Trudeau is trying to drag the entire country into a standoff largely born of his own missteps. As one insider put it, “This isn’t just about politics anymore. It’s about survival—for Trudeau, for his party, and potentially for Canada as a unified nation.”
Ontario Premier Doug Ford, ostensibly a conservative, has become an unlikely ally of Trudeau. In a bizarre spectacle, Ford donned a Trump-style hat emblazoned with the slogan “CANADA IS NOT FOR SALE.” Critics have mocked the gesture as an empty, performative nod to populism, eight years too late to matter.
“Ford’s hat might as well say, ‘We’re Playing Trump’s Game,’” quipped a political analyst. “It’s clear they’re reacting, not leading.”
The stakes couldn’t be higher. Alberta’s defiance signals a deeper fracture in Canada’s already tenuous federation. The province has long been at odds with Ottawa over energy policy, equalization payments, and federal overreach. Now, with Smith openly aligning Alberta’s interests with the U.S., the possibility of a more significant break looms large.
“If Alberta feels that its future is better tied to the U.S. than to Canada, we’re looking at an existential crisis for the country,” said a political historian. “Ottawa needs Alberta’s money to survive. Alberta’s future depends on its oil. The federal government’s current agenda threatens both.”
For Washington, this isn’t just about oil or trade—it’s about asserting dominance in a hemisphere that it sees as its backyard. Trump’s administration will prioritize maximizing U.S. energy output, and Alberta’s alignment with that agenda makes it a valuable partner. The U.S. has little patience for Trudeau’s posturing, and any further deterioration in relations could have severe consequences for Canada’s economy and political stability.
Mainstream Canadian media has largely downplayed or ignored the geopolitical implications of this crisis. Coverage focuses on scandals and political fatigue but fails to address the elephant in the room: Canada’s rapidly deteriorating relationship with its largest trading partner and the internal divisions threatening to tear the country apart.
As January 20 approaches, the Trudeau government faces mounting pressure to present a coherent plan that doesn’t alienate Alberta or further antagonize the U.S. But time is running out. With provincial premiers divided, Alberta digging in its heels, and Washington preparing to play hardball, Canada’s crisis is only deepening.
The question now isn’t whether Canada can resolve its differences—it’s whether it can survive them.
