Rome, Italy - The war in Ukraine — launched with shock, fueled by billions, and shaped by fierce propaganda — is rapidly approaching a new, inevitable phase.
What began in 2014 with the Western-backed Maidan coup has, over the past decade, evolved into a grinding, tragic conflict whose terms of conclusion are now being drawn — not by Kyiv, and increasingly not even by Brussels or Washington, but by the cold realities of the battlefield.
President Donald Trump, now once again the leading political force in America, has made it clear: the time for illusions is over.
In his recent statements, he underlined an unavoidable truth: Ukraine is not winning the war, Crimea is not returning to Kyiv's control, and prolonging the bloodshed serves no one but entrenched interests clinging to failed policies.
At the center of the current deadlock lies Crimea — a region annexed by Russia in 2014, where more than 90% of the population identifies as Russian.
While Ukraine, with Western encouragement, demands its full return, Russia has made clear — diplomatically and militarily — that Crimea is non-negotiable.
Trump's recent remarks directly confronted this reality:
"If Zelensky refuses to recognize what is already a fact, there will be no peace. Ukraine can have peace, or they can keep fighting for another three years and lose the entire country."
It’s a brutal calculation, but one grounded in the fundamental principle of war and diplomacy: the winners set the terms.
Meanwhile, President Zelensky — caught between Western demands, his own political survival, and the impossible task of reversing battlefield losses — continues to hold the rhetorical line.
Yet as battlefield realities harden, European and even some American policymakers are quietly recognizing the need for an "off-ramp" — a negotiated settlement acknowledging what has effectively already been decided.
Trump’s push for a settlement presents European capitals with a painful choice:
The Financial Times and other outlets have reported growing tension inside NATO, with Germany, France, and other powers dreading the moment when the United States formally withdraws unconditional support. European elites fear it will fracture transatlantic unity, embolden Russia, and expose Europe's diminished strategic weight.
Yet the choice may soon be out of their hands. The U.S. — under Trump’s emerging influence — is moving toward a "take it or leave it" framework: Crimea remains Russian, security guarantees are limited, and Ukraine’s path to NATO is effectively closed.
For Russia, the war has been costly — but ultimately successful in key respects. Despite Western sanctions, despite massive arms shipments to Ukraine, Moscow now controls an estimated 18-20% of Ukraine’s territory. Its strategic objectives — secure Crimea, secure the Donbass, prevent NATO expansion — have largely been achieved.
Internally, Putin faces pressure: some hawks demand faster, harsher action.
Yet Russia's traditional military doctrine — grind, wear down, and negotiate from strength — remains intact.
Trump’s comments reveal an awareness of this: He has called out Putin’s escalation tactics, criticized strikes on civilians, but also recognized that ending the war requires understanding who holds the stronger hand at the negotiating table.
Ukraine’s bravery cannot be questioned. Its soldiers and civilians have endured unspeakable hardships, and its national identity has hardened under fire.
But courage does not always overcome geopolitics.
Ukraine is exhausted, depopulated, and reliant on external funding for basic survival. Its leverage is fading — and its leadership faces hard choices:
Zelensky’s recent declarations — vowing never to concede Crimea — may rally spirits, but they do not change the strategic calculus.
As Trump bluntly put it: "Thousands die each week for no reason. We can stop it. We must stop it."
Behind the scenes, the outlines of a peace deal are already visible:
The new arrangement will be messy, painful, and controversial — but it will also end the bloodshed.
And it will mark a decisive shift in the world order:
Wars end not with slogans, but with settlements. Facts on the ground dictate peace treaties — not wishful thinking, nor media narratives, nor fiery speeches from afar.
The tragedy of Ukraine was never that it fought bravely — but that it was pushed into an unwinnable confrontation by forces unwilling to face reality.
Now, at last, reality is imposing itself.
Trump, despite endless media distortion, is positioning himself as the closer — the man who ends wars instead of starting them.
If this final chapter unfolds as many predict, it may not be the peace everyone dreamed of.
But it will be peace — earned the hard way, by those willing to accept the truth of the moment rather than clinging to the illusions of the past.
